A Tough Sell To Expect A Sustainable Bounce; EUR/CHF: Time To Consider Buying Dips - TD

05/29/2020

TD Research discusses its tactical bias on EUR/USD and EUR/CHF in the near-term.

"We still think the EUR lacks the ingredients for a breakout. EUR currently sits in the short MRSI basket with negative ratings on carry, yield curve, and equity performance. We think it's a tough sell to expect a sustainable bounce in the EUR in the absence of 1) stretched short positioning 2) extreme discount in the price or 3) underpriced fundamentals as we get from MRSI,"TD notes.

"Even our positioning tracker (PIT) shows that EUR positioning is only neutral - not anything close to extreme. Where positioning could matter more is with EURCHF, with our PIT tools showing long positions in CHF. Still, we expect a bounce in CHF on month-end positioning flows, but it's time to consider buying the dips in EURCHF," TD adds.