EUR: More Aggressive ECB Communications Likely On The Way

MUFG Research discusses the EUR outlook and expects more aggressive ECB communications in the near-term to slow the recent rally in the pair.

"September will be an important month for the financial markets with the ECB, the Fed, the BoE and the BoJ all holding monetary policy meetings. The focus of late has been on the Fed given the monetary policy review conclusions outlined by Fed Chair Powell last week ahead of the FOMC meeting on 16th September. But it's the ECB up first of the four big central banks with its meeting on 10th September and the minutes from the July meeting released in August showed that the Governing Council could be in a position by then to give a clearer communication on policy guidance," MUFG notes.

"This realisation may well have been a factor in EUR/USD failing to follow through after yesterday breaching the key 1.2000 level for the first time in two years. If the EUR advance continues it is likely to get more attention...More aggressive ECB communications look to us to be on the way, which we believe will play a role in slowing this EUR move higher," MUFG adds