NZD: Fade Weakens If RBNZ Goes Negative On Rates

05/12/2020

Citi sees a scope for NZD to shoot higher after the RBNZ policy meeting this week.

"Positioning is so one sided that it alone dictates higher levels over this week if the USD remains under pressure from negative rates implications. That pricing also makes the NZ curve vulnerable if the market goes after those rates/central banks that suggest negative rates a real and viable alternative. We will get a better sense of where Orr is at on Wednesday and the market is positioned to be underwhelmed," Citi notes.

"Overnight headlines that lockdown restrictions will be further relaxed with retail and public spaces reopening from May 15 (schools - May 18, bars - May 21) reinforces our view that the country will be firing quickly, and negates the case for negative rates ahead of RBNZ this week," Citi adds.