Setting The Sarge For Major Risk Events In June - Credit Agricole

05/20/2020

Credit Agricole Research flags a key risk event for GBP in the month of June.

"Consistent with our Q220 FX forecasts, the GBP outlook has worsened sharply of late on the back of market expectations of further BoE easing (including negative rates) as well as persistent fears about a notrade-deal Brexit. The selling pressure should persist in our view especially if the BoE acts more decisively by expanding its QE programme more aggressively on 18 June and the EU and the UK fail to agree on extending the transition period at the EU summit on 18-19 June," CACIB notes.

"Our fair value analysis suggests that GBP/USD could slip to 1.20 or lower and EUR/GBP could rise to 0.92 or higher if no-trade-deal Brexit risks escalate in the coming months," CACIB notes.