SNB - Swiss National Bank

SNB - Swiss National Bank

15-SEPT-2023


SNB ANNOUNCEMENT (THU): The June SNB Policy announcement saw a 25bp hike to 1.75%. The statement stated that medium term inflationary pressures had increased once again, and as such additional hikes cannot be ruled out. Regarding the September review, headline CPI printed at 1.6% in both July and August, in-line with and slightly above market expectations respectively; but, crucially just below the SNB's Q3 view of 1.7%. However, the SNB is more concerned with the medium-term horizon as it expects inflation to lift back above the 0-2% target band from Q1-2024 onwards. Inflation aside, the growth outlook is turning somewhat downbeat with Q2 GDP stagnating due to a marked downturn in the manufacturing sector, which remains well in contractionary territory according to subsequent PMIs. On this, given the downturn in the EZ's growth backdrop and ongoing global pressures in manufacturing, the situation does not point to a near-term improvement. In terms of the upcoming policy meeting, the aforementioned developments and actors do not chime with further tightening action; however, it remains to be seen what the SNB's assessment of medium-term inflation is following renewed global energy pressure, particularly as policymakers have been quiet in recent weeks. Overall, a hike cannot be ruled out given the previously stated medium-term concerns, but data and market pricing err on the side of an unchanged announcement.